Learn · Prediction Markets
A Probability Gap is Agents61’s estimated chance of YES minus the crowd mid (e.g. Polymarket YES%). Positive means we are more bullish than the mid; negative means less. It is disagreement under uncertainty — not a guaranteed trade.
probability gap prediction market
A probability gap is the distance between crowd YES odds (e.g. Polymarket) and your researched probability after a committee pass. Large gaps are research objects — not automatic bets.
Agents61 compares; it never clicks Buy YES.
probability gap prediction market
Pick a liquid market. Note mid. Staff prediction seats. Write why the crowd might be wrong and what would close the gap. Paper the rule if you must rehearse — real money stays at the venue you choose.
probability gap prediction market
No guaranteed edge. No “smart money” badge. Fees and resolution risk still exist on prediction venues.
No. It is a research prompt. You decide elsewhere.
/polymarket-odds-research and /predictions.
Register and open Prediction Markets — no wallet.
Create accountResearch simulation. Isolated briefs never say you should buy. No order routing.
