Compare · Prediction markets
Polymarket is the market: prices, volume, and settlement. Agents61 is the intelligence layer above it. We import crowd YES%, run a specialized prediction committee, and publish a Probability Gap — research simulation only. No buy YES/NO. No order routing.
Polymarket
You need live odds, liquidity, or to trade the contract on Polymarket itself.
Agents61
You already see a mid and want independent probability research: base rates, news layer, resolution risk, and why the crowd may be wrong.
Polymarket research tool
That line is the product. Polymarket settles contracts. Agents61 answers whether the mid makes sense under independent research: base rates, domain, market structure, Bayesian update, contrarian and red-team seats, resolution wording — then a Prediction Clerk synthesizes range and confidence.
Polymarket research tool
Gap = Agents61 estimate − market YES%. It is disagreement under research uncertainty — not a guaranteed edge. Resolution ambiguity can make a “correct” world-event resolve the wrong way for the contract. Free desks get one Analyze; paid desks add news layer and Pro Clerk.
Polymarket research tool
Open /predictions → sort Top Gaps or paste a Polymarket /event/… URL → run Analyze → read why-wrong and why-right before any edge story → Watchlist the mid. Keep Polymarket for trading. Keep Agents61 for research.
Polymarket research tool
No order routing. No wallet. No “you should buy” sentence at the bottom of a brief. Personas are unaffiliated simulations from books and letters — not the living people, not a 13F tip, not a Street poll. Keep your tape and your broker for execution.
| Agents61 | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Job | Prediction-market probability research | Prediction exchange + prices |
| Market probability | Reads Polymarket YES mid as input | Sets the mid via trading |
| Independent estimate | Multi-agent Agents61 probability + range | Crowd-implied only |
| Probability Gap | Core product metric (A61 − Market) | Not a research product |
| Trade / wallet | None — View Market only | Buy YES / NO on venue |
| Best for | Investors researching event odds | Traders who want the contract |
No. Polymarket is the venue. Agents61 is odds research on top of public market data — paste a URL, analyze, watchlist. We do not execute trades.
No. Gaps are probability disagreement, not guaranteed returns. Resolution wording and information risk can dominate.
Architecture is multi-provider. Polymarket is live first; Kalshi follows after validation.
Yes — one free Analyze to try the Strategy Report. Paid desks unlock news layer, Pro Clerk, and ongoing use alongside the equity committee.
Register to open Prediction Markets, run Analyze, and keep a watchlist. Polymarket stays the exchange. Agents61 stays the research layer — no wallet, no Buy YES/NO.
Create accountNot a Polymarket replacement for every job. Research simulation — not advice, no buy button.
