Learn · 6 min
Invert the thesis before you size
Step 1
State the leftover belief in one sentence
If it takes a paragraph, you do not have a belief. You have a mood.
Step 2
Convene with debate in mind
Ask what kills it. Earnings quality, leverage, cycle, governance.
Step 3
Do not average the bear
A 60/40 split is information. A blended “cautiously optimistic” is not.
Research simulation. Not advice.