Product · Prediction Markets
Polymarket and Kalshi answer what price the crowd trades. Agents61 answers whether that probability makes sense under independent research. Specialized agents, a Prediction Clerk, and a Probability Gap — research simulation only.
prediction market research
That line is the product. We compete as an intelligence layer, not as an exchange. Keep Polymarket for trading. Use Agents61 for disagreement — base rates, news, domain, market structure, Bayesian update, contrarian, red team, resolution, and risk.
prediction market research
Specialized prediction seats write, then a Prediction Clerk synthesizes range and confidence. The Probability Gap (Agents61 − Market) is disagreement under uncertainty — not a guaranteed edge. Resolution wording can dominate.
Deep dive: /what-is-a-probability-gap.
prediction market research
Scan widely with cheap filters on Top Gaps and the scanner. Run the full committee only on candidates you open. Free desks get one Analyze to try the Strategy Report; paid desks add news layer and Pro Clerk.
prediction market research
A wallet, Buy YES/NO, or a position-size ticket disguised as research. View Market / Analyze / Watchlist only. Paper mid fills: /prediction-market-paper-trading.
No. Research and probability intelligence only.
Start at /predictions. Compare framing at /compare/polymarket.
Agents61 estimate minus market YES%. It flags disagreement for research — not a guaranteed trade. See /learn/probability-gap-research.
Architecture is multi-provider. Polymarket is live first; Kalshi follows after validation.
Create an account to open Prediction Markets, run Analyze, and keep a watchlist. No wallet — research simulation only.
Create accountResearch simulation. Isolated briefs never say you should buy. No order routing.
