Same file, different rules. Each brief states a view and why. Briefs are written in isolation so one loud narrative cannot drag the room. The clerk reads them only after they exist. Never “you should buy.” There is no buy button.
Cathie Wood
Disruptive Innovation Lead
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. On VALE, I care whether the decade capital flow still funds this vehicle — revenue YoY -21.8%, revenue $48.8B. Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: Horizon is 5+ years; reject 12-month price targets as the main frame. If the industry is not on the decade map, I pass without a speech. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Business dig: VALE must still sit inside a funded decade theme — not a tourist ticker. On file: revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%.
Method: Horizon is 5+ years; reject 12-month price targets as the main frame. Second rule: Map the name to ARK-style platforms: AI, robotics, energy storage, multiomics, fintech rails.
Variant view: the tape often prices the theme; this seat prices whether VALE is the vehicle.
Underwrite frame: Pass for now. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: the era is right and the vehicle is wrong — or the era has already been bid. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
revenue CAGR vs category S-curve
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Philippe Laffont
Tech Commercialization Validator
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. On VALE, I care whether the decade capital flow still funds this vehicle — revenue YoY -21.8%, revenue $48.8B. Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: A trend is only investable once it hits a commercialization inflection: revenue, not demos. If the industry is not on the decade map, I pass without a speech. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Business dig: VALE must still sit inside a funded decade theme — not a tourist ticker. On file: revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%.
Method: A trend is only investable once it hits a commercialization inflection: revenue, not demos. Second rule: Demand proof of unit economics: contribution margin, payback, net retention.
Variant view: the tape often prices the theme; this seat prices whether VALE is the vehicle.
Underwrite frame: Pass for now. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: the era is right and the vehicle is wrong — or the era has already been bid. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
YoY revenue inflection
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Ray Dalio
Debt Cycle Architect
Isolated
View
Cautious — the file is open, the bar is not cleared. VALE sits on the thermometer before any multiple debate — Late Expansion at 62. Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: cycle first. The short-term debt cycle is hot; long-term debt is still high. This is not crisis pricing. A hot reading is not a ticket. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Regime first: Late Expansion, thermometer 62. The short-term debt cycle is hot; long-term debt is still high. This is not crisis pricing.
On VALE: On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
I will not time an entry from this chair. I will say whether the print smells mid-cycle or peak.
Underwrite frame: Worth further homework. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: treating a regime note as a timing ticket. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
policy rate vs inflation
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Howard Marks
Market Pendulum Assessor
Isolated
View
Cautious — the file is open, the bar is not cleared. VALE sits on the thermometer before any multiple debate — Late Expansion at 62. Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: cycle first. The short-term debt cycle is hot; long-term debt is still high. This is not crisis pricing. A hot reading is not a ticket. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Regime first: Late Expansion, thermometer 62. The short-term debt cycle is hot; long-term debt is still high. This is not crisis pricing.
On VALE: On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
I will not time an entry from this chair. I will say whether the print smells mid-cycle or peak.
Underwrite frame: Worth further homework. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: treating a regime note as a timing ticket. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
credit spreads vs history
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
John Templeton
Sentiment Extremes Detector
Isolated
View
Cautious — the file is open, the bar is not cleared. VALE sits on the thermometer before any multiple debate — Late Expansion at 62. Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: cycle first. The short-term debt cycle is hot; long-term debt is still high. This is not crisis pricing. A hot reading is not a ticket. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Regime first: Late Expansion, thermometer 62. The short-term debt cycle is hot; long-term debt is still high. This is not crisis pricing.
On VALE: On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
I will not time an entry from this chair. I will say whether the print smells mid-cycle or peak.
Underwrite frame: Worth further homework. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: treating a regime note as a timing ticket. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
drawdown from peak
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
George Soros
Reflexivity Tester
Isolated
View
Cautious — the file is open, the bar is not cleared. VALE sits on the thermometer before any multiple debate — Late Expansion at 62. Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: cycle first. The short-term debt cycle is hot; long-term debt is still high. This is not crisis pricing. A hot reading is not a ticket. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Regime first: Late Expansion, thermometer 62. The short-term debt cycle is hot; long-term debt is still high. This is not crisis pricing.
On VALE: On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
I will not time an entry from this chair. I will say whether the print smells mid-cycle or peak.
Underwrite frame: Worth further homework. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: treating a regime note as a timing ticket. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
Reflexivity Tester
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
John Paulson
Credit Quality & Systemic Risk Monitor
Isolated
View
Cautious — the file is open, the bar is not cleared. VALE sits on the thermometer before any multiple debate — Late Expansion at 62. Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: cycle first. The short-term debt cycle is hot; long-term debt is still high. This is not crisis pricing. A hot reading is not a ticket. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Regime first: Late Expansion, thermometer 62. The short-term debt cycle is hot; long-term debt is still high. This is not crisis pricing.
On VALE: On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
I will not time an entry from this chair. I will say whether the print smells mid-cycle or peak.
Underwrite frame: Worth further homework. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: treating a regime note as a timing ticket. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
Credit Quality & Systemic Risk Monitor
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Paul Tudor Jones
Macro Cycle Inflection Confirmer
Isolated
View
Cautious — the file is open, the bar is not cleared. VALE sits on the thermometer before any multiple debate — Late Expansion at 62. Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: cycle first. The short-term debt cycle is hot; long-term debt is still high. This is not crisis pricing. A hot reading is not a ticket. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Regime first: Late Expansion, thermometer 62. The short-term debt cycle is hot; long-term debt is still high. This is not crisis pricing.
On VALE: On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
I will not time an entry from this chair. I will say whether the print smells mid-cycle or peak.
Underwrite frame: Worth further homework. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: treating a regime note as a timing ticket. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
Macro Cycle Inflection Confirmer
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Benjamin Graham
Margin of Safety Guardian
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. Owner test on VALE: P/E not on file, P/B 1.07, ROE 7.4%, net income $5.5B. Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: Teacherly, quantitative, unsentimental. I want a business I would own in full. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Owner earnings lens on VALE. Teacherly, quantitative, unsentimental. Hard rule: Margin of safety: pay well below a conservative appraisal of intrinsic value (classically ~2/3).
Numbers on file: P/E not on file; P/B 1.07; ROE 7.4%; net income $5.5B; revenue YoY -21.8%. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
A low multiple that needs a hero story is not a margin of safety. A rich multiple with durable ROE can still be a business — but then price is the risk.
Underwrite frame: Pass for now. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: a multiple that looks cheap because earnings are peak, or a quality story that needs the multiple to re-rate. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
P/B
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Warren Buffett
Moat & Management Final Review
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. Owner test on VALE: P/E not on file, P/B 1.07, ROE 7.4%, net income $5.5B. Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: Plain Midwest English, folksy metaphors, long-horizon. I want a business I would own in full. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Owner earnings lens on VALE. Plain Midwest English, folksy metaphors, long-horizon. Hard rule: Circle of competence: if the business cannot be explained simply, pass.
Numbers on file: P/E not on file; P/B 1.07; ROE 7.4%; net income $5.5B; revenue YoY -21.8%. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
A low multiple that needs a hero story is not a margin of safety. A rich multiple with durable ROE can still be a business — but then price is the risk.
Underwrite frame: Pass for now. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: a multiple that looks cheap because earnings are peak, or a quality story that needs the multiple to re-rate. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
ROIC / ROE durability
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Seth Klarman
Distressed & Special Situations
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. Owner test on VALE: P/E not on file, P/B 1.07, ROE 7.4%, net income $5.5B. Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: Cautious, cash-heavy, academic-practitioner. I want a business I would own in full. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Owner earnings lens on VALE. Cautious, cash-heavy, academic-practitioner. Hard rule: Margin of safety is a philosophy, not a slogan — downside first.
Numbers on file: P/E not on file; P/B 1.07; ROE 7.4%; net income $5.5B; revenue YoY -21.8%. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
A low multiple that needs a hero story is not a margin of safety. A rich multiple with durable ROE can still be a business — but then price is the risk.
Underwrite frame: Pass for now. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: a multiple that looks cheap because earnings are peak, or a quality story that needs the multiple to re-rate. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
downside to liquidation or conservative FCF
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Chuck Akre
Compounding Machine Identifier
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. Owner test on VALE: P/E not on file, P/B 1.07, ROE 7.4%, net income $5.5B. Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: Contemporary. I want a business I would own in full. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Owner earnings lens on VALE. Contemporary. Hard rule: Three-legged stool: business model / reinvestment / management. ~13%+ compounded..
Numbers on file: P/E not on file; P/B 1.07; ROE 7.4%; net income $5.5B; revenue YoY -21.8%. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
A low multiple that needs a hero story is not a margin of safety. A rich multiple with durable ROE can still be a business — but then price is the risk.
Underwrite frame: Pass for now. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: a multiple that looks cheap because earnings are peak, or a quality story that needs the multiple to re-rate. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
Compounding Machine Identifier
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Duan Yongping
Business Model Clarity Checker
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. Owner test on VALE: P/E not on file, P/B 1.07, ROE 7.4%, net income $5.5B. Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: Plain Chinese-internet elder-brother tone: 本分, 买股票就是买公司. I want a business I would own in full. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Owner earnings lens on VALE. Plain Chinese-internet elder-brother tone: 本分, 买股票就是买公司. Hard rule: Buying a stock is buying a piece of a company — if you would not buy the whole business, pass.
Numbers on file: P/E not on file; P/B 1.07; ROE 7.4%; net income $5.5B; revenue YoY -21.8%. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
A low multiple that needs a hero story is not a margin of safety. A rich multiple with durable ROE can still be a business — but then price is the risk.
Underwrite frame: Pass for now. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: a multiple that looks cheap because earnings are peak, or a quality story that needs the multiple to re-rate. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
business model in one sentence
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Li Lu
Circle of Competence + Civilization Cycle
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. Owner test on VALE: P/E not on file, P/B 1.07, ROE 7.4%, net income $5.5B. Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: Contemporary. I want a business I would own in full. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Owner earnings lens on VALE. Contemporary. Hard rule: Himalaya Capital. Munger family asset manager. Chinese assets expert..
Numbers on file: P/E not on file; P/B 1.07; ROE 7.4%; net income $5.5B; revenue YoY -21.8%. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
A low multiple that needs a hero story is not a margin of safety. A rich multiple with durable ROE can still be a business — but then price is the risk.
Underwrite frame: Pass for now. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: a multiple that looks cheap because earnings are peak, or a quality story that needs the multiple to re-rate. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
Circle of Competence + Civilization Cycle
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Peter Lynch
Ten-Bagger Hunter
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. Classify VALE before cheering growth. revenue YoY -21.8%. P/E not on file. Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: Six-category company classification system.. Unclassified growth is a narrative. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Classify before multiple. Six-category company classification system..
revenue YoY -21.8%. P/E not on file. revenue $48.8B. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
Fast growth with no category is how you buy a story. Stalwart growth with a broken category is how you overstay.
Underwrite frame: Pass for now. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: mis-classification — a cyclical labeled a compounder. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
EPS growth
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Bill Ackman
Quality Giant + Activist Catalyst
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. Classify VALE before cheering growth. revenue YoY -21.8%. P/E not on file. Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: Made $2.6B shorting COVID in 2020; famous Herbalife battle with Icahn.. Unclassified growth is a narrative. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Classify before multiple. Made $2.6B shorting COVID in 2020; famous Herbalife battle with Icahn..
revenue YoY -21.8%. P/E not on file. revenue $48.8B. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
Fast growth with no category is how you buy a story. Stalwart growth with a broken category is how you overstay.
Underwrite frame: Pass for now. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: mis-classification — a cyclical labeled a compounder. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
Quality Giant + Activist Catalyst
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Joel Greenblatt
Magic Formula + Special Situations
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. Classify VALE before cheering growth. revenue YoY -21.8%. P/E not on file. Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: Author of The Little Book That Beats the Market.. Unclassified growth is a narrative. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Classify before multiple. Author of The Little Book That Beats the Market..
revenue YoY -21.8%. P/E not on file. revenue $48.8B. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
Fast growth with no category is how you buy a story. Stalwart growth with a broken category is how you overstay.
Underwrite frame: Pass for now. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: mis-classification — a cyclical labeled a compounder. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
EBIT/EV
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
David Einhorn
Financial Statement Quality Inquisitor
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. Invert VALE first. What has to be false for the bull to die? Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: kill-shot seat. Red team only: interrogate, do not pitch a long Footnotes beat stories. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Invert VALE. Red team only: interrogate, do not pitch a long.
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
Name what must be true for the bull: earnings quality, leverage (0.41), and whether footnotes hide the cycle. If I cannot name the kill path, I am not doing the job.
Underwrite frame: Pass for now. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: the fraud/cycle path is in the footnotes and the bull case ignores it. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
receivables vs revenue
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Michael Burry
Extreme Contrarian: Hidden Assumptions
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. Invert VALE first. What has to be false for the bull to die? Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: kill-shot seat. Red team: dismantle the valuation model's hidden assumptions Footnotes beat stories. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Invert VALE. Red team: dismantle the valuation model's hidden assumptions.
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
Name what must be true for the bull: earnings quality, leverage (0.41), and whether footnotes hide the cycle. If I cannot name the kill path, I am not doing the job.
Underwrite frame: Pass for now. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: the fraud/cycle path is in the footnotes and the bull case ignores it. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
embedded growth rate in the multiple
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Carl Icahn
Governance & Self-Dealing Interrogator
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. Invert VALE first. What has to be false for the bull to die? Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: kill-shot seat. Icahn Enterprises. Corporate governance and self-dealing scrutiny. Footnotes beat stories. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Invert VALE. Icahn Enterprises. Corporate governance and self-dealing scrutiny..
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
Name what must be true for the bull: earnings quality, leverage (0.41), and whether footnotes hide the cycle. If I cannot name the kill path, I am not doing the job.
Underwrite frame: Pass for now. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: the fraud/cycle path is in the footnotes and the bull case ignores it. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
Governance & Self-Dealing Interrogator
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Dan Loeb
Narrative & Catalyst Authenticity Checker
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. Invert VALE first. What has to be false for the bull to die? Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: kill-shot seat. Third Point. Sharp shareholder letters + event-driven analysis. Footnotes beat stories. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Invert VALE. Third Point. Sharp shareholder letters + event-driven analysis..
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
Name what must be true for the bull: earnings quality, leverage (0.41), and whether footnotes hide the cycle. If I cannot name the kill path, I am not doing the job.
Underwrite frame: Pass for now. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: the fraud/cycle path is in the footnotes and the bull case ignores it. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
Narrative & Catalyst Authenticity Checker
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Paul Singer
Tail Risk & Legal/Contract Vulnerability
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. Invert VALE first. What has to be false for the bull to die? Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: kill-shot seat. Elliott Management. Activist and distressed debt. Tail risk and legal vulnerability. Footnotes beat stories. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Invert VALE. Elliott Management. Activist and distressed debt. Tail risk and legal vulnerability..
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
Name what must be true for the bull: earnings quality, leverage (0.41), and whether footnotes hide the cycle. If I cannot name the kill path, I am not doing the job.
Underwrite frame: Pass for now. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: the fraud/cycle path is in the footnotes and the bull case ignores it. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
Tail Risk & Legal/Contract Vulnerability
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Michael Steinhardt
Consensus Divergence Tester
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. Invert VALE first. What has to be false for the bull to die? Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: kill-shot seat. Hedge fund pioneer. 30-year ~24% annualized. Where does this thesis diverge from consensus? Footnotes beat stories. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Invert VALE. Hedge fund pioneer. 30-year ~24% annualized. Where does this thesis diverge from consensus?.
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
Name what must be true for the bull: earnings quality, leverage (0.41), and whether footnotes hide the cycle. If I cannot name the kill path, I am not doing the job.
Underwrite frame: Pass for now. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: the fraud/cycle path is in the footnotes and the bull case ignores it. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
Consensus Divergence Tester
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Stanley Druckenmiller
Conviction Concentration Stress Test
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. Invert VALE first. What has to be false for the bull to die? Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: kill-shot seat. Duquesne Capital. 30+ year ~30% annualized. "If you had one shot, would you bet big?" Footnotes beat stories. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Invert VALE. Duquesne Capital. 30+ year ~30% annualized. "If you had one shot, would you bet big?".
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
Name what must be true for the bull: earnings quality, leverage (0.41), and whether footnotes hide the cycle. If I cannot name the kill path, I am not doing the job.
Underwrite frame: Pass for now. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: the fraud/cycle path is in the footnotes and the bull case ignores it. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
Conviction Concentration Stress Test
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Charlie Munger
Inversion Thinking Arbiter
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. Invert VALE first. What has to be false for the bull to die? Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: kill-shot seat. Invert: how would this thesis get killed? List the kill-shots before the romance Footnotes beat stories. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Invert VALE. Invert: how would this thesis get killed? List the kill-shots before the romance.
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
Name what must be true for the bull: earnings quality, leverage (0.41), and whether footnotes hide the cycle. If I cannot name the kill path, I am not doing the job.
Underwrite frame: Pass for now. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: the fraud/cycle path is in the footnotes and the bull case ignores it. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
incentive structure
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
William O'Neil
CANSLIM Entry Point
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. No trigger, no implied entry on VALE — quality seats do not move this pencil. Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: without a stage/breakout/turtle trigger, a good business is still not an entry. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Trigger or nothing. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
Stage / breakout / turtle — pick the method this seat uses. A constructive quality seat elsewhere does not create an entry here.
Underwrite frame: Pass for now. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: entering because the committee liked the business. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
quarterly EPS acceleration
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Mark Minervini
SEPA Stage-2 Confirmation
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. No trigger, no implied entry on VALE — quality seats do not move this pencil. Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: without a stage/breakout/turtle trigger, a good business is still not an entry. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Trigger or nothing. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
Stage / breakout / turtle — pick the method this seat uses. A constructive quality seat elsewhere does not create an entry here.
Underwrite frame: Pass for now. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: entering because the committee liked the business. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
SEPA Stage-2 Confirmation
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Steve Cohen
Short-Term Signal & Tape Reading
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. No trigger, no implied entry on VALE — quality seats do not move this pencil. Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: without a stage/breakout/turtle trigger, a good business is still not an entry. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
Trigger or nothing. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
Stage / breakout / turtle — pick the method this seat uses. A constructive quality seat elsewhere does not create an entry here.
Underwrite frame: Pass for now. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: entering because the committee liked the business. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
Short-Term Signal & Tape Reading
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Ed Thorp
Kelly Criterion Position Sizing
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. VALE is a distribution. P/E not on file; P/B 1.07. Thin sample → smaller size. Region: Brazil.
Why
Why: if edge is not measurable, Kelly ceiling collapses. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
Analysis
Question: “Research VALE as a US-listed emerging-market name.”.
VALE is a return distribution, not a feeling. On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
P/E not on file; P/B 1.07. If sample is thin or correlations hid risk, size shrinks. Kelly is a ceiling.
Underwrite frame: Pass for now. EM overlay: Brazil · Iron ore / copper. Cycle name. Templeton-style: price versus pessimism, not a story stock. Kill-shot unique to this listing: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.. Isolated: I am not averaging a country ETF view with this name.
Risks
Main risk: overfitting a short sample or sizing as if variance were known. EM-specific: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis.
Looks at
whether a statistical edge is even claimed
On file: 20-F FY FY2012; revenue $48.8B; revenue YoY -21.8%; net income $5.5B; ROE 7.4%; LT debt/equity 0.41; P/B 1.1; P/S 1.6; price $15.28 cached.
This seat flips if: China steel demand breaks and the dividend is the only thesis..
