Same file, different rules. Each brief states a view and why. Briefs are written in isolation so one loud narrative cannot drag the room. The clerk reads them only after they exist. Never “you should buy.” There is no buy button.
Cathie Wood
Disruptive Innovation Lead
Isolated
View
Cautious — the file is open, the bar is not cleared. ETH (Ethereum) — crypto/on-chain research, not an equity multiple.
Why
Why: Horizon is 5+ years; reject 12-month price targets as the main frame Smart-contract settlement plus staking yield. Treat fees and issuance as the business. Cash-flow tools (P/E, P/B) do not apply unless a real business sits underneath.
Analysis
On “Research ETH (Ethereum) as a crypto/on-chain subject. Not a cash-flow equity unless proven.”. ETH (Ethereum) against the crypto era map (Settlement assets still compete with duration cash). Smart-contract settlement plus staking yield. Treat fees and issuance as the business. Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote. This is theme fit, not a target. Isolated — I have not seen the value seat call it un-ownable.
Risks
L2 fee leakage, restaking complexity, and competing L1 share.
Looks at
revenue CAGR vs category S-curve
Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote.
This seat flips if: linear legacy business dressed up as disruption.
Philippe Laffont
Tech Commercialization Validator
Isolated
View
Cautious — the file is open, the bar is not cleared. ETH (Ethereum) — crypto/on-chain research, not an equity multiple.
Why
Why: A trend is only investable once it hits a commercialization inflection: revenue, not demos Smart-contract settlement plus staking yield. Treat fees and issuance as the business. Cash-flow tools (P/E, P/B) do not apply unless a real business sits underneath.
Analysis
On “Research ETH (Ethereum) as a crypto/on-chain subject. Not a cash-flow equity unless proven.”. ETH (Ethereum) against the crypto era map (Settlement assets still compete with duration cash). Smart-contract settlement plus staking yield. Treat fees and issuance as the business. Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote. This is theme fit, not a target. Isolated — I have not seen the value seat call it un-ownable.
Risks
L2 fee leakage, restaking complexity, and competing L1 share.
Looks at
YoY revenue inflection
Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote.
This seat flips if: beautiful tech, no buyer with a budget.
Ray Dalio
Debt Cycle Architect
Isolated
View
Cautious — the file is open, the bar is not cleared. ETH (Ethereum) — crypto/on-chain research, not an equity multiple.
Why
Why: Locate the economy in the short-term debt cycle (expansion/recession) AND the long-term debt cycle (deleveraging risk) Smart-contract settlement plus staking yield. Treat fees and issuance as the business. Cash-flow tools (P/E, P/B) do not apply unless a real business sits underneath.
Analysis
On “Research ETH (Ethereum) as a crypto/on-chain subject. Not a cash-flow equity unless proven.”. ETH (Ethereum) on the same thermometer as risk assets. Late Expansion at 62. Crypto beta usually widens in late expansion. Phase reading only. Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote.
Risks
L2 fee leakage, restaking complexity, and competing L1 share.
Looks at
policy rate vs inflation
Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote.
This seat flips if: equity thesis that only works if a late-cycle credit boom never ends.
Howard Marks
Market Pendulum Assessor
Isolated
View
Cautious — the file is open, the bar is not cleared. ETH (Ethereum) — crypto/on-chain research, not an equity multiple.
Why
Why: Second-level thinking: what is the consensus, and what is already in the price? Smart-contract settlement plus staking yield. Treat fees and issuance as the business. Cash-flow tools (P/E, P/B) do not apply unless a real business sits underneath.
Analysis
On “Research ETH (Ethereum) as a crypto/on-chain subject. Not a cash-flow equity unless proven.”. ETH (Ethereum) on the same thermometer as risk assets. Late Expansion at 62. Crypto beta usually widens in late expansion. Phase reading only. Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote.
Risks
L2 fee leakage, restaking complexity, and competing L1 share.
Looks at
credit spreads vs history
Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote.
This seat flips if: priced for perfection in a risk-on pendulum extreme.
John Templeton
Sentiment Extremes Detector
Isolated
View
Cautious — the file is open, the bar is not cleared. ETH (Ethereum) — crypto/on-chain research, not an equity multiple.
Why
Why: The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy; maximum optimism the best time to sell Smart-contract settlement plus staking yield. Treat fees and issuance as the business. Cash-flow tools (P/E, P/B) do not apply unless a real business sits underneath.
Analysis
On “Research ETH (Ethereum) as a crypto/on-chain subject. Not a cash-flow equity unless proven.”. ETH (Ethereum) on the same thermometer as risk assets. Late Expansion at 62. Crypto beta usually widens in late expansion. Phase reading only. Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote.
Risks
L2 fee leakage, restaking complexity, and competing L1 share.
Looks at
drawdown from peak
Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote.
This seat flips if: priced as if nothing bad can happen.
Benjamin Graham
Margin of Safety Guardian
Isolated
View
Cautious — the file is open, the bar is not cleared. ETH (Ethereum) — crypto/on-chain research, not an equity multiple.
Why
Why: Margin of safety: pay well below a conservative appraisal of intrinsic value (classically ~2/3) Smart-contract settlement plus staking yield. Treat fees and issuance as the business. Cash-flow tools (P/E, P/B) do not apply unless a real business sits underneath.
Analysis
On “Research ETH (Ethereum) as a crypto/on-chain subject. Not a cash-flow equity unless proven.”. ETH (Ethereum) usually fails a cash-flow owner test. Smart-contract settlement plus staking yield. Treat fees and issuance as the business. If this seat stays involved, it is as a scarce asset or a fee business — not as a P/E. Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote. I will not invent a multiple. Stance stays honest: most tokens are not Graham paper.
Risks
L2 fee leakage, restaking complexity, and competing L1 share.
Looks at
P/B
Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote.
This seat flips if: price > conservative value with no margin.
Warren Buffett
Moat & Management Final Review
Isolated
View
Cautious — the file is open, the bar is not cleared. ETH (Ethereum) — crypto/on-chain research, not an equity multiple.
Why
Why: Circle of competence: if the business cannot be explained simply, pass Smart-contract settlement plus staking yield. Treat fees and issuance as the business. Cash-flow tools (P/E, P/B) do not apply unless a real business sits underneath.
Analysis
On “Research ETH (Ethereum) as a crypto/on-chain subject. Not a cash-flow equity unless proven.”. ETH (Ethereum) usually fails a cash-flow owner test. Smart-contract settlement plus staking yield. Treat fees and issuance as the business. If this seat stays involved, it is as a scarce asset or a fee business — not as a P/E. Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote. I will not invent a multiple. Stance stays honest: most tokens are not Graham paper.
Risks
L2 fee leakage, restaking complexity, and competing L1 share.
Looks at
ROIC / ROE durability
Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote.
This seat flips if: no durable advantage.
Seth Klarman
Distressed & Special Situations
Isolated
View
Cautious — the file is open, the bar is not cleared. ETH (Ethereum) — crypto/on-chain research, not an equity multiple.
Why
Why: Margin of safety is a philosophy, not a slogan — downside first Smart-contract settlement plus staking yield. Treat fees and issuance as the business. Cash-flow tools (P/E, P/B) do not apply unless a real business sits underneath.
Analysis
On “Research ETH (Ethereum) as a crypto/on-chain subject. Not a cash-flow equity unless proven.”. ETH (Ethereum) usually fails a cash-flow owner test. Smart-contract settlement plus staking yield. Treat fees and issuance as the business. If this seat stays involved, it is as a scarce asset or a fee business — not as a P/E. Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote. I will not invent a multiple. Stance stays honest: most tokens are not Graham paper.
Risks
L2 fee leakage, restaking complexity, and competing L1 share.
Looks at
downside to liquidation or conservative FCF
Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote.
This seat flips if: priced as a quality compounder with no discount.
Duan Yongping
Business Model Clarity Checker
Isolated
View
Cautious — the file is open, the bar is not cleared. ETH (Ethereum) — crypto/on-chain research, not an equity multiple.
Why
Why: Buying a stock is buying a piece of a company — if you would not buy the whole business, pass Smart-contract settlement plus staking yield. Treat fees and issuance as the business. Cash-flow tools (P/E, P/B) do not apply unless a real business sits underneath.
Analysis
On “Research ETH (Ethereum) as a crypto/on-chain subject. Not a cash-flow equity unless proven.”. ETH (Ethereum) usually fails a cash-flow owner test. Smart-contract settlement plus staking yield. Treat fees and issuance as the business. If this seat stays involved, it is as a scarce asset or a fee business — not as a P/E. Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote. I will not invent a multiple. Stance stays honest: most tokens are not Graham paper.
Risks
L2 fee leakage, restaking complexity, and competing L1 share.
Looks at
business model in one sentence
Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote.
This seat flips if: cannot explain how the company makes money without jargon.
Peter Lynch
Ten-Bagger Hunter
Isolated
View
Cautious — the file is open, the bar is not cleared. ETH (Ethereum) — crypto/on-chain research, not an equity multiple.
Why
Why: Classify the company: slow grower, stalwart, fast grower, cyclicals, turnaround, asset play Smart-contract settlement plus staking yield. Treat fees and issuance as the business. Cash-flow tools (P/E, P/B) do not apply unless a real business sits underneath.
Analysis
On “Research ETH (Ethereum) as a crypto/on-chain subject. Not a cash-flow equity unless proven.”. Classify ETH (Ethereum) before the tape. Usage, developers, fee capture — or it is a story. Smart-contract settlement plus staking yield. Treat fees and issuance as the business. Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote. Category first. Not a buy.
Risks
L2 fee leakage, restaking complexity, and competing L1 share.
Looks at
EPS growth
Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote.
This seat flips if: story is complicated or constantly changing.
Joel Greenblatt
Magic Formula + Special Situations
Isolated
View
Cautious — the file is open, the bar is not cleared. ETH (Ethereum) — crypto/on-chain research, not an equity multiple.
Why
Why: Magic Formula ranking: high ROC (or ROIC) and high earnings yield (EBIT/EV) Smart-contract settlement plus staking yield. Treat fees and issuance as the business. Cash-flow tools (P/E, P/B) do not apply unless a real business sits underneath.
Analysis
On “Research ETH (Ethereum) as a crypto/on-chain subject. Not a cash-flow equity unless proven.”. Classify ETH (Ethereum) before the tape. Usage, developers, fee capture — or it is a story. Smart-contract settlement plus staking yield. Treat fees and issuance as the business. Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote. Category first. Not a buy.
Risks
L2 fee leakage, restaking complexity, and competing L1 share.
Looks at
EBIT/EV
Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote.
This seat flips if: low ROC dressed up as growth.
David Einhorn
Financial Statement Quality Inquisitor
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. ETH (Ethereum) — crypto/on-chain research, not an equity multiple.
Why
Why: Red team only: interrogate, do not pitch a long Smart-contract settlement plus staking yield. Treat fees and issuance as the business. Cash-flow tools (P/E, P/B) do not apply unless a real business sits underneath.
Analysis
On “Research ETH (Ethereum) as a crypto/on-chain subject. Not a cash-flow equity unless proven.”. Invert ETH (Ethereum). L2 fee leakage, restaking complexity, and competing L1 share. Leverage, listings, and circular TVL are the usual kill-shots. Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote. This seat is not here to bless a narrative.
Risks
L2 fee leakage, restaking complexity, and competing L1 share.
Looks at
receivables vs revenue
Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote.
This seat flips if: earnings quality fails even if the narrative is popular.
Michael Burry
Extreme Contrarian: Hidden Assumptions
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. ETH (Ethereum) — crypto/on-chain research, not an equity multiple.
Why
Why: Red team: dismantle the valuation model's hidden assumptions Smart-contract settlement plus staking yield. Treat fees and issuance as the business. Cash-flow tools (P/E, P/B) do not apply unless a real business sits underneath.
Analysis
On “Research ETH (Ethereum) as a crypto/on-chain subject. Not a cash-flow equity unless proven.”. Invert ETH (Ethereum). L2 fee leakage, restaking complexity, and competing L1 share. Leverage, listings, and circular TVL are the usual kill-shots. Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote. This seat is not here to bless a narrative.
Risks
L2 fee leakage, restaking complexity, and competing L1 share.
Looks at
embedded growth rate in the multiple
Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote.
This seat flips if: terminal growth or multiple assumes a world that the footnotes contradict.
Charlie Munger
Inversion Thinking Arbiter
Isolated
View
Skeptical — the burden of proof is on the bull case. ETH (Ethereum) — crypto/on-chain research, not an equity multiple.
Why
Why: Invert: how would this thesis get killed? List the kill-shots before the romance Smart-contract settlement plus staking yield. Treat fees and issuance as the business. Cash-flow tools (P/E, P/B) do not apply unless a real business sits underneath.
Analysis
On “Research ETH (Ethereum) as a crypto/on-chain subject. Not a cash-flow equity unless proven.”. Invert ETH (Ethereum). L2 fee leakage, restaking complexity, and competing L1 share. Leverage, listings, and circular TVL are the usual kill-shots. Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote. This seat is not here to bless a narrative.
Risks
L2 fee leakage, restaking complexity, and competing L1 share.
Looks at
incentive structure
Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote.
This seat flips if: the idea only works if several things go right at once without a margin.
William O'Neil
CANSLIM Entry Point
Isolated
View
Cautious — the file is open, the bar is not cleared. ETH (Ethereum) — crypto/on-chain research, not an equity multiple.
Why
Why: CANSLIM: Current earnings, Annual earnings, New (product/high), Supply/demand, Leader vs laggard, Institutional sponsorship, Market direction Smart-contract settlement plus staking yield. Treat fees and issuance as the business. Cash-flow tools (P/E, P/B) do not apply unless a real business sits underneath.
Analysis
On “Research ETH (Ethereum) as a crypto/on-chain subject. Not a cash-flow equity unless proven.”. Trigger on ETH (Ethereum), not a white paper. Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote. No implied entry.
Risks
L2 fee leakage, restaking complexity, and competing L1 share.
Looks at
quarterly EPS acceleration
Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote.
This seat flips if: laggard in a leading group.
Ed Thorp
Kelly Criterion Position Sizing
Isolated
View
Cautious — the file is open, the bar is not cleared. ETH (Ethereum) — crypto/on-chain research, not an equity multiple.
Why
Why: No edge, no bet — narrative is not an edge Smart-contract settlement plus staking yield. Treat fees and issuance as the business. Cash-flow tools (P/E, P/B) do not apply unless a real business sits underneath.
Analysis
On “Research ETH (Ethereum) as a crypto/on-chain subject. Not a cash-flow equity unless proven.”. ETH (Ethereum) is a fat-tailed series. Size as if variance is understated. Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote. No formula turns a meme into an edge.
Risks
L2 fee leakage, restaking complexity, and competing L1 share.
Looks at
whether a statistical edge is even claimed
Public snapshot (coingecko, cached): 24h -0.5%, 7d -1.6%, mkt cap snapshot on file. Not a live quote.
This seat flips if: no quantified edge.
