Post-SPCX private~$28B · DoD politics

Can software-defined defense keep software margins inside DoD budget politics?

One award re-rates the mark overnight. One export-control hit deletes it. Primes want the category. Isolation finds which story is real.

Isolation seats: Cathie Wood · Druckenmiller · Ray Dalio · Klarman

Convene Anduril desk

Logged in → Analyze pre-filled. Guest → register, then same desk. Not a buy button.

Why it is on the desk

Anduril is the default post-SpaceX private compounder test on this desk: autonomy, sensors, and government contracting without an issuer 10-K. Secondary marks only — no EDGAR, no live quote.

Committee angle

Wood-style disruption vs. Buffett-style procurement cycles. The debate is whether software margins survive DoD budget politics, or whether primes absorb the category.

Risks to watch

Contract concentration, export controls, and valuation marks that re-rate on a single award. Do not treat a media round as an executable price.

Cached fact card

Secondary mark: ~$28B secondary (2025–26 media range)
Last round: Primary / secondary reports
Revenue run-rate: —
Listed comparables: LMT, NOC, RTX, PL

Private desk: secondary marks and public disclosures only. Not EDGAR. Not a live quote. Not investable price.

Prompt: "Research Anduril as a private company — autonomy contracts, secondary valuation, and defense-budget risk. No EDGAR."