This market refers to the LoL Round 5 match between Hanwha Life Esports and Bilibili Gaming in the Worlds Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 31, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Hanwha Life Esports" if Hanwha Life Esports win the match against Bilibili Gaming. This market will resolve to "Bilibili Gaming" if Bilibili Gaming win the match against Hanwha Life Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 14, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 31, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Volume $2.1M · Closes Nov 1, 2026 · Last analyzed 10/31/2026, 11:50:52 PM · View source market
数字都是「YES 会成立」的胜算估计，不是「今天能赚多少」。确信度 = 我们对这个估计有多有把握。
我们比市场更看好 YES（多 15 个点）
我们对这个判断把握一般（大约五成多）
合理区间大概在 8%–22%（不是下单建议）
Run Analyze to start an append-only history of Market vs Agents61 estimates.
Free: 1 template analyze. Paid desk: news layer + Pro Prediction Clerk.
市场胜算是多少？我们的胜算是多少？差了多少？确信度大概几成？——点 Analyze 出完整报告。
Polymarket 认为 YES
Agents61 认为 YES
我们比市场更看好 YES（多 15 个点）
我们对这个判断把握一般（大约五成多）
胜算合理区间 8%–22% · 结算规则风险 中等 · 引擎 模板草稿
Agents61 15% vs market 0.1% (gap +14.9%) on “LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage”. Medium confidence; resolution risk Medium.
Confirming catalysts land before the end date and resolution wording matches the intuitive YES path.
Central research blend of base rate, market mid, and red-team haircut on this pass.
Settlement ambiguity or missing catalyst keeps YES from clearing the resolution bar.
Resolution draft on file: “This market refers to the LoL Round 5 match between Hanwha Life Esports and Bilibili Gaming in the Worlds Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 31, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Hanwha Life Esp…” — score ambiguity before trusting any edge.
Narrative around “LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage” is active on public wires. Treat headlines as unverified until tied to a resolution criterion. Recent volume ($2.0M) suggests the story is priced, not ignored.
Market YES ≈ 0.1%. Volume $2.0M. Close window: Nov 1, 2026. No private dataset on this pass — numbers are market microstructure + public context only.
Class base rate for general events is rarely equal to the live mid. Start near a conservative class prior (~48%), then update with market and domain evidence — do not anchor only on the tape.
General: separate base rates from story momentum.
YES mid 0.1% with $2.0M notional. Crowded tape ≠ calibrated probability; thin books exaggerate gaps. Use mid as a prior, not a truth.
Blend base-rate prior with market likelihood. Posterior sketch ≈ 22% before red-team haircut.
Crowd is NO-leaning — ask whether base rates or catalysts are underweighted on YES.
Kill-shots: (1) resolution text does not match the intuitive question, (2) data used is stale vs end date, (3) narrative double-counts the same catalyst already in the mid.
Resolution draft on file: “This market refers to the LoL Round 5 match between Hanwha Life Esports and Bilibili Gaming in the Worlds Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 31, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Hanwha Life Esp…” — score ambiguity before trusting any edge.
Model risk: template/LLM research can sound calibrated while missing a settlement edge case. Position risk is out of scope (no trading). Treat Probability Gap as a research prompt, not a bet size.
Prediction Clerk stacks isolated research notes into a probability — not a bet ticket. No wallet, no order routing.
区块链交易指导
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage
我们比市场更看好 YES（多 15 个点）。我们对这个判断把握一般（大约五成多）
市场胜算
0.1%
我们的胜算
15%
差了多少
+15%
确信度
约 55%
仓位参考
本次不建议开仓。
已到/过结算窗口，别新开；只适合核对结算。
链上执行清单（Polygon）
清单未齐时先用 Paper，或到 polymarket.com 补 USDC/授权。
可以做
别做
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