This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume $788K · Closes Nov 3, 2026 · Last analyzed 10/31/2026, 12:00:23 PM · View source market
数字都是「YES 会成立」的胜算估计，不是「今天能赚多少」。确信度 = 我们对这个估计有多有把握。
我们比市场更看好 YES（多 12 个点）
我们对这个判断把握一般（大约五成多）
合理区间大概在 14%–32%（不是下单建议）
Run Analyze to start an append-only history of Market vs Agents61 estimates.
Free: 1 template analyze. Paid desk: news layer + Pro Prediction Clerk.
市场胜算是多少？我们的胜算是多少？差了多少？确信度大概几成？——点 Analyze 出完整报告。
Polymarket 认为 YES
Agents61 认为 YES
我们比市场更看好 YES（多 10 个点）
我们对这个判断把握一般（大约五成多）
胜算合理区间 14%–32% · 结算规则风险 中等 · 引擎 模板草稿
Agents61 23% vs market 13% (gap +10%) on “Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?”. Medium confidence; resolution risk Medium.
Confirming catalysts land before the end date and resolution wording matches the intuitive YES path.
Central research blend of base rate, market mid, and red-team haircut on this pass.
Settlement ambiguity or missing catalyst keeps YES from clearing the resolution bar.
Resolution draft on file: “This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by…” — score ambiguity before trusting any edge.
Narrative around “Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, an” is active on public wires. Treat headlines as unverified until tied to a resolution criterion. Recent volume ($1.0M) suggests the story is priced, not ignored.
Market YES ≈ 13%. Volume $1.0M. Close window: Nov 3, 2026. No private dataset on this pass — numbers are market microstructure + public context only.
Class base rate for general events is rarely equal to the live mid. Start near a conservative class prior (~34%), then update with market and domain evidence — do not anchor only on the tape.
General: separate base rates from story momentum.
YES mid 13% with $1.0M notional. Crowded tape ≠ calibrated probability; thin books exaggerate gaps. Use mid as a prior, not a truth.
Blend base-rate prior with market likelihood. Posterior sketch ≈ 24% before red-team haircut.
Crowd is NO-leaning — ask whether base rates or catalysts are underweighted on YES.
Kill-shots: (1) resolution text does not match the intuitive question, (2) data used is stale vs end date, (3) narrative double-counts the same catalyst already in the mid.
Resolution draft on file: “This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by…” — score ambiguity before trusting any edge.
Model risk: template/LLM research can sound calibrated while missing a settlement edge case. Position risk is out of scope (no trading). Treat Probability Gap as a research prompt, not a bet size.
Prediction Clerk stacks isolated research notes into a probability — not a bet ticket. No wallet, no order routing.
区块链交易指导
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
我们比市场更看好 YES（多 10 个点）。我们对这个判断把握一般（大约五成多）
市场胜算
11.5%
我们的胜算
23%
差了多少
+10%
确信度
约 55%
仓位参考
偏谨慎标准仓：名义大约总资金的 3%–7%（示例 $30–$70）。
预计持有约 3 天内看结算（短窗口）。
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Prediction Markets is odds research. The equity desk staffs legends on tickers the same way — isolated briefs, then a clerk.
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