In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 31 at 6:00PM ET: If the 76ers win, the market will resolve to "76ers". If the Hornets win, the market will resolve to "Hornets". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
Volume $6.2M · Closes Oct 31, 2026 · Last analyzed 10/31/2026, 11:50:52 PM · View source market
数字都是「YES 会成立」的胜算估计，不是「今天能赚多少」。确信度 = 我们对这个估计有多有把握。
我们比市场更不看好 YES（少 57 个点）
我们对这个判断把握偏弱（大约三成多）
合理区间大概在 33%–53%（不是下单建议）
Run Analyze to start an append-only history of Market vs Agents61 estimates.
Free: 1 template analyze. Paid desk: news layer + Pro Prediction Clerk.
市场胜算是多少？我们的胜算是多少？差了多少？确信度大概几成？——点 Analyze 出完整报告。
Polymarket 认为 YES
Agents61 认为 YES
我们比市场更看好 YES（多 3 个点）
我们对这个判断把握偏弱（大约三成多）
胜算合理区间 33%–53% · 结算规则风险 中等 · 引擎 模板草稿
Agents61 43% vs market 40.5% (gap +2.5%) on “76ers vs. Hornets”. Low confidence; resolution risk Medium.
Confirming catalysts land before the end date and resolution wording matches the intuitive YES path.
Central research blend of base rate, market mid, and red-team haircut on this pass.
Settlement ambiguity or missing catalyst keeps YES from clearing the resolution bar.
Resolution draft on file: “In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 31 at 6:00PM ET: If the 76ers win, the market will resolve to "76ers". If the Hornets win, the market will resolve to "Hornets". If the game is postponed, this market will …” — score ambiguity before trusting any edge.
Narrative around “76ers vs. Hornets” is active on public wires. Treat headlines as unverified until tied to a resolution criterion. Recent volume ($3.7M) suggests the story is priced, not ignored.
Market YES ≈ 40.5%. Volume $3.7M. Close window: Oct 31, 2026. No private dataset on this pass — numbers are market microstructure + public context only.
Class base rate for general events is rarely equal to the live mid. Start near a conservative class prior (~44%), then update with market and domain evidence — do not anchor only on the tape.
General: separate base rates from story momentum.
YES mid 40.5% with $3.7M notional. Crowded tape ≠ calibrated probability; thin books exaggerate gaps. Use mid as a prior, not a truth.
Blend base-rate prior with market likelihood. Posterior sketch ≈ 42% before red-team haircut.
Market is near coin-flip — edge, if any, is in resolution wording and catalyst timing, not direction slogans.
Kill-shots: (1) resolution text does not match the intuitive question, (2) data used is stale vs end date, (3) narrative double-counts the same catalyst already in the mid.
Resolution draft on file: “In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 31 at 6:00PM ET: If the 76ers win, the market will resolve to "76ers". If the Hornets win, the market will resolve to "Hornets". If the game is postponed, this market will …” — score ambiguity before trusting any edge.
Model risk: template/LLM research can sound calibrated while missing a settlement edge case. Position risk is out of scope (no trading). Treat Probability Gap as a research prompt, not a bet size.
Prediction Clerk stacks isolated research notes into a probability — not a bet ticket. No wallet, no order routing.
区块链交易指导
76ers vs. Hornets
我们比市场更看好 YES（多 3 个点）。我们对这个判断把握偏弱（大约三成多）
市场胜算
100%
我们的胜算
43%
差了多少
+3%
确信度
约 35%
仓位参考
本次不建议开仓。
已到/过结算窗口，别新开；只适合核对结算。
链上执行清单（Polygon）
清单未齐时先用 Paper，或到 polymarket.com 补 USDC/授权。
可以做
别做
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Prediction Markets is odds research. The equity desk staffs legends on tickers the same way — isolated briefs, then a clerk.
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