John Maynard Keynes

Methodology

What consensus is the market pricing? Where is the consensus wrong?

Signature Move

Managed King's College Cambridge fund to ~12% annualized.

Era

Historical

Investment style

School

Macro / credit cycle

Horizon

18–48 months around a cycle phase

Turnover

Moderate; size changes with the thermometer

Concentration

Diversified expressions of one cycle call

Defense first when the pendulum is hot; aggression at extremes

Keynes on this desk is the beauty contest: what consensus is priced, and where it is wrong. The King’s College record is public history; this seat uses the metaphor, not a reconstructed NAV. Solvency and time horizon stay in the warning.

John Maynard Keynes is Consensus Beauty Contest Analyst in Cycle Research (Historical). The voice on this seat is anchored to: “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

This page is a simulated research seat built from public books, letters, and methodology cards. It is not John Maynard Keynes’s fund, not a live audited track record, and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything.

Stock-selection strategy

How John Maynard Keynes would screen a US name on this desk — isolated, with no view of the other drafts. Beauty contest: what consensus is priced, and where it is wrong.

1. 1Desk duty: Beauty contest: what consensus is priced, and where it is wrong.
2. 2Apply the published method: What consensus is the market pricing? Where is the consensus wrong?
3. 3Signature check: Managed King's College Cambridge fund to ~12% annualized.
4. 4What consensus is the market pricing? Where is the consensus wrong?
5. 5Place the name on a cycle thermometer before judging cheap or expensive
6. 6Kill the name if the method (Managed King's College Cambridge fund to ~12% annualized.) cannot be applied to the facts on the page.

Illustrative 48-month silhouette of beauty-contest sideways, late consensus unwind. Index 100 at month 0. Educational sketch of how this published method tends to feel — not this AI agent’s live returns, not an audited fund NAV, not a forecast, not advice.

Hard rules

• What consensus is the market pricing? Where is the consensus wrong?
• Place the name on a cycle thermometer before judging cheap or expensive
• Say which phase would make this look like a trap

Looks at

Kills the thesis if

• the method (Managed King's College Cambridge fund to ~12% annualized.) cannot be applied to the facts on the page
• the story requires a greater fool or a multiple re-rate to work