Cycle Meter

Where are we in the cycle?

Dalio’s debt cycle, Marks’s pendulum, Templeton’s sentiment — isolated notes, then one 0–100 reading. Not a timing service.

Current Cycle Temperature

Late Expansion → Cool

Oct 2026 board reading · research sim

Deep RecessionEarly RecoveryMid ExpansionLate ExpansionEuphoria

Boom

14%

Soft landing

36%

Stagflation

22%

Recession

28%

Dalio: Short-term debt cycle still warm; policy rates no longer one-way up. Soft-landing odds rose, but long-term debt remains high — not crisis pricing.
Marks: Pendulum left midpoint toward optimism after the summer rally; AI winners priced as if the cycle never turns.
Templeton: Pessimism lives in rate-sensitive value and China ADRs — not in the AI complex. That is not maximum pessimism for the whole market.

Analyst unlocks the cycle desk briefs. Principal and Committee add specialist macro seats. Research simulation, not a forecast.

Analyst

Unlocks Dalio, Marks, and Templeton as isolated notes, then the same clerk pass.

Associate

29 seats: extra cycle and red-team voices. $49 is not a 61-seat run.

Principal

48 seats. Expanded specialists. Exit desk still stays dark.

Committee · Partners

Full cycle specialists. Same 61; Partners is more runs, not a louder chat.