This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume $31.4M · Closes Nov 7, 2028 · Last analyzed 9/17/2026, 9:08:12 AM · View source market
Committee range 9%–21% (uncertainty band, not a bet ticket)
Run Analyze to start an append-only history of Market vs Agents61 estimates.
Free: 1 template analyze. Paid desk: news layer + Pro Prediction Clerk.
What does the market think? What does Agents61 think? How large is the disagreement? Why — and what would make Agents61 wrong?
Probability range 9%–21% · Resolution risk Medium · Engine template
Agents61 15% vs market 0.1% (gap +14.9%) on “Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?”. Medium confidence; resolution risk Medium.
Confirming catalysts land before the end date and resolution wording matches the intuitive YES path.
Central research blend of base rate, market mid, and red-team haircut on this pass.
Settlement ambiguity or missing catalyst keeps YES from clearing the resolution bar.
Resolution draft on file: “This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this mark…” — score ambiguity before trusting any edge.
Narrative around “Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?” is active on public wires. Treat headlines as unverified until tied to a resolution criterion. Recent volume ($31.4M) suggests the story is priced, not ignored.
Market YES ≈ 0.1%. Volume $31.4M. Close window: Nov 7, 2028. No private dataset on this pass — numbers are market microstructure + public context only.
Class base rate for politics events is rarely equal to the live mid. Start near a conservative class prior (~50%), then update with market and domain evidence — do not anchor only on the tape.
Politics: polls, turnout models, and resolution wording (who counts as winner) dominate.
YES mid 0.1% with $31.4M notional. Crowded tape ≠ calibrated probability; thin books exaggerate gaps. Use mid as a prior, not a truth.
Blend base-rate prior with market likelihood. Posterior sketch ≈ 22% before red-team haircut.
Crowd is NO-leaning — ask whether base rates or catalysts are underweighted on YES.
Kill-shots: (1) resolution text does not match the intuitive question, (2) data used is stale vs end date, (3) narrative double-counts the same catalyst already in the mid.
Resolution draft on file: “This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this mark…” — score ambiguity before trusting any edge.
Model risk: template/LLM research can sound calibrated while missing a settlement edge case. Position risk is out of scope (no trading). Treat Probability Gap as a research prompt, not a bet size.
Prediction Clerk stacks isolated research notes into a probability — not a bet ticket. No wallet, no order routing.
Prediction Markets is odds research. The equity desk staffs legends on tickers the same way — isolated briefs, then a clerk.
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